Leading up to the November presidential and congressional elections, we will offer our thoughts and insights – not only on the political developments but also how the politics will shape the policy development in Congress. To get this bi-weekly communication directly to your inbox, subscribe to our Federal Policy updates here.
Trump vs. Harris: A Clash of Visions on Trade Policies
10/24/2024
By Ronald J. Baumgarten Jr., Tung A. Nguyen and James K. Perry
In 2018, then-President Trump imposed duties on a wide range of products from China and on aluminum and steel products from U.S. trading partners in Europe and Asia, totaling $80 billion in tariffs on products worth $380 billion. The Biden administration maintained these tariffs and, in May 2024, added another $18 billion on Chinese goods, impacting semiconductors and electric vehicles for an extra $3.6 billion in duties. Some exemptions were made for imports from certain allies. Estimates suggest these tariffs will reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent and the capital stock by 0.1 percent and will cut 142,000 full-time jobs.
The Great Environmental Divide – What to Expect from the Harris and Trump Administrations
10/10/2024
By Martin Booher, Matthew Thurlow, Joshua Wilson, and Lindsey Simmons
As with most issues, the potential Harris and Trump administrations have sharply divergent views on the role and priorities of the federal government in relation to the implementation and enforcement of environmental laws. In this instance, we have the benefit of experience from prior administrations to help inform what we can expect to see from the next president. While it is impossible to touch on the multitude of issues that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and state and local environmental agencies face, several environmental challenges will dominate headlines during the next four years, and here we attempt to contrast the candidates on these issues.
The Future of Employment-Based Immigration Policy in the US: A Return to the Old or More of the Same
9/26/2024
By David Serwer and Travis Gunn
When the 2024 presidential candidates discuss immigration, and when the media covers it, they are often talking about unauthorized immigrants, which colloquially means non-U.S. citizens who enter and stay in the U.S. without legal authorization. However, the vast majority of immigrants in the U.S. – 77 percent – are here lawfully. In 2023, they accounted for nearly 19 percent of the U.S. civilian labor force, including more than 20 percent of physicians (more than half in rural areas), 16 percent of nurses, 19 percent of STEM workers and almost half of all Fortune 500 company founders. Many of them obtained lawful status and employment authorization by means of the U.S. government’s employment-based visa program. In fact, in 2023, nearly one-quarter of all U.S. immigrants obtained their green card through employment-based pathways.
Healthcare Consolidation Under a Harris Presidency: Expect the Battle to Intensify
9/12/2024
Vice President Kamala Harris changed the course of healthcare transaction regulation in California while serving as the state’s attorney general. As president, she would have more powerful tools at her disposal, setting the stage for her to resume the fight against healthcare consolidation – this time at a national level.
Congress’ Thin Preelection Agenda
8/29/2024
Lawmakers return to Capitol Hill on September 9 from their summer recess with multiple issues on their plates – everything from legislation setting online safety standards for kids to key Pentagon policies. But Congress faces only one must-do deadline in September: passing a budget to avoid a government shutdown.
Five Themes to Look for During the Democratic National Convention in Chicago
08/15/2024
By Peter J. Roskam and Heath Shuler
- Accelerate the Momentum
- Reproductive Rights
- Immigration
- Tax Policy
- Define the Election as a Referendum on Trump
How Politics May Impact IP Policy in the Next Four Years
08/01/2024
Of all the issues pressing Congress and highlighted during the presidential campaigns, the issue of intellectual property (IP) rights is unlikely to be addressed during the first year following the upcoming presidential and congressional elections. Nonetheless, over time, there are a number of ways that IP policy may be impacted based on who wins the elections.
Five Themes to Look for During the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
07/11/2024
By Peter J. Roskam and Heath Shuler
- Tax and tariff policy
- Immigration
- America’s role in the world
- Regulatory remake
- Referendum on Biden
