Five Themes to Look for During the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee

Republicans will draw attention to the expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, arguing they must be renewed to avoid more than $4 trillion in tax increases on the American economy – mostly on individuals and small businesses. Former President Donald Trump will tout his plan to eliminate taxes on workers’ tips as well as lower the corporate tax rate. In a shift from traditional Republican orthodoxy, Trump and other convention speakers also will promote increased tariffs in an effort to protect American manufacturing. In another shift from decades of GOP talking points, don’t look for Republicans to offer solutions to the ballooning federal deficit ($1.2 trillion this fiscal year) or the national debt ($34 trillion and growing).

Republicans see the White House’s border policies as a key political weakness for President Joe Biden, and they will aim to exploit it. Republicans will draw a sharp contrast between Biden’s border policies and Trump’s, with the GOP leveraging disparaging comments from Democratic big-city mayors to highlight the cost and social impact of illegal immigration. Republicans also will promote testimonials from victims of violence perpetrated by those who have entered the United States illegally.

In a contrast with some leading Democrats, Republicans will unequivocally denounce the Hamas terrorist attack and unequivocally support Israel’s military response in Gaza. Look for criticism of America’s European allies for not doing more to bolster Ukraine as it defends against Russia’s invasion, and a reassertion of America’s adverse strategic relationship with China. But in a nod to the burgeoning populist streak among some Republican voters, convention speakers also will question the value of multilateral relationships, the U.S. commitment to international institutions and the risk of direct American involvement in foreign conflicts.

Republicans will promise a regulatory renaissance starting with domestic energy production. Agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency and the Federal Trade Commission, with which many in the business community have had an adverse relationship, will be criticized as obstacles to innovation, economic growth and job creation.

The Trump and Biden campaigns have shadowboxed for months, attempting to make the election a referendum on the other candidate. But Biden’s debate performance last month caused the political spotlight to be trained solely on him, not Trump. Expect a rhetorical GOP fusillade on Biden’s age, mental capacity and fitness for office – including repeating some of the concerns about Biden that have been expressed by leading Democrats in recent days. Republicans believe they have an effective one-two political punch: questioning Biden’s capacity to govern and criticizing his policies on issues Americans care most about.